Introduction:
This chapter assesses simulations of future global climate change, spanning time horizons from the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long term (2081–2100) out to the year 2300. Changes are assessed relative to both the recent past (1995–2014) and the 1850–1900 approximation to the pre-industrial period.
The projections assessed here are mainly based on a new range of scenarios, the Shared-Socio economic Pathways (SSPs) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Among the SSPs, the focus is on the five scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. In the SSP labels, the first number refers to the assumed shared socio-economic pathway, and the second refers to the approximate global effective radiative forcing (ERF) in 2100. Where appropriate, this chapter also assesses new results from CMIP5, which used scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Additional lines of evidence enter the assessment, especially for change in globally averaged surface air temperature (GSAT) and global mean sea level (GMSL), while assessment for changes in other quantities is mainly based on CMIP6 results. Unless noted otherwise, the assessments assume that there will be no major volcanic eruption in the 21st century.
What is the Joint Oslo Seminar (JOS):
Atmospheric and climate sciences have a stronghold in Oslo among the four institutions University of Oslo, the Meteorological Institute, CICERO and NILU. This joint seminar invites renowned international experts to contribute to an informal series of lectures, meant to create interaction with the Oslo atmospheric and climate science community on recent highlights and analysis in the field. All seminars will be held on Thursdays (Noon -1pm).