Abstract:
This talk will discuss some recent work on the climate response to volcanic eruptions. It includes the question to what extent observed/reconstructed and simulated responses to external forcing are consistent given uncertainties in the autocorrelation of treering based proxies and reconstructions of past volcanism. Apparent discrepancies in the response time and amplitude can largely be reconciled if considering autocorrelation in responses, and also forcing uncertainty can identify possible samples that are in better agreement with reconstructions than the best estimate forcing.
Given the short term incidence of volcanic forcing, coincidence with climate variability can also lead to apparent discrepancies. The response of precipitation to volcanic eruptions is complex as the location and season of eruptions influences the detailed response pattern, yet some aspects of the response are similar between eruptions. While greenhouse gas increases sharpen the contrast between wet and dry regions, volcanic eruptions reduce it in climate models, with some evidence that this is also observable. The example of the Tambora eruption shows that in past events rainfall responses contributed to extreme responses. Understanding and simulating the circulation and rainfall response remains challenging.
What is the Joint Oslo Seminar (JOS):
- Atmospheric and climate sciences have a stronghold in Oslo among the four institutions University of Oslo, the Meteorological Institute, CICERO and NILU.
- This joint seminar invites renowned international experts to contribute to an informal series of lectures, meant to create interaction with the Oslo atmospheric and climate science community on recent highlights and analysis in the field.
- All seminars will be held on Thursdays (Noon -1pm).