Abstract:
Efficient and accurate model parameter estimation is a challenge in many different climate research groups. There has been renewed interest in parameter estimation methods, in part due to a confluence of recent scientific advancements. First, large observational datasets are becoming more readily available and accessible via cloud storage and computing. Second, increased computational capacity has enabled the generation of ensembles of model simulations with strategic perturbations to model parameters. Third, machine learning algorithms are emerging as valuable tools for high-dimensional data-driven tasks such as parameter estimation. Given these advancements, many groups are exploring and developing methods for more accurately and efficiently estimating model parameters and using this for scientific exploration. For example, to evaluate parameterizations in models, simulations have often been performed with only one change to one parameterization at the time. This is highly inefficient and can be both time-consuming and computationally costly. I will present results from a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) using CESM-CAM6, where the parameter values are determined with the Latin Hypercube sampling technique. Utilizing the Latin hypercube sampling technique reduces the needed number of ensembles, while making sure the entire parameter spaces are used. In our case 45 parameters in the microphysics, convective, turbulence and aerosol schemes were perturbed over 262 simulations. Machine learning can then be used to fill out the density of parameter combinations. I will also highlight some other PPE studies (either with CESM-CAM6 PPE or different PPEs) being conducted in the research community.
What is the Joint Oslo Seminar (JOS):
- Atmospheric and climate sciences have a stronghold in Oslo among the four institutions University of Oslo, the Meteorological Institute, CICERO and NILU.
- This joint seminar invites renowned international experts to contribute to an informal series of lectures, meant to create interaction with the Oslo atmospheric and climate science community on recent highlights and analysis in the field.
- All seminars will be held on Thursdays (12:15 pm -1 pm).