Christian Jaedicke

• Toft, Håvard B; Müller, Karsten; Hendrikx, Jordy; Jaedicke, Christian & Bühler, Yves (2023). Can big data and random forests improve avalanche runout estimation compared to simple linear regression? Cold Regions Science and Technology. ISSN 0165-232X. 211. doi: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103844. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Accurate prediction of snow avalanche runout-distances in a deterministic sense remains a challenge due to the complexity of all the physical properties involved. Therefore, in many locations including Norway, it has been common practice to define the runout distance using the angle from the starting point to the end of the runout zone (α-angle). We use a large dataset of avalanche events from Switzerland (N = 18,737) acquired using optical satellites to calculate the α-angle for each avalanche. The α-angles in our dataset are normally distributed with a mean of 33° and a standard deviation of 6.1°, which provides additional understanding and insights into α-angle distribution. Using a feature importance module in the Random Forest framework, we found the most important topographic parameter for predicting α-angles to be the average gradient from the release area to the β-point. Despite the large dataset and a modern machine learning (ML) method, we found the simple linear regression model to yield a higher performance than our ML attempts. This means that it is better to use a simple linear regression in an operational context

• Frauenfelder, Regula; Solheim, Anders; Isaksen, Ketil; Romstad, Bård; Dyrrdal, Anita Verpe & Ekseth, Kristine [Show all 19 contributors for this article] (2016). Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway. Geophysical Research Abstracts. ISSN 1029-7006. Full text in Research Archive
• Harbitz, Carl Bonnevie; Kaiser, Gunilla; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Jaedicke, Christian; Vafeidis, Athanasios T. & Gothlich, Stephan E. [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2016). Coastal inundation multi-hazard analysis for a construction site in Malaysia. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management. ISSN 1466-8297. 19(1/2), p. 142–164. doi: 10.1504/IJRAM.2016.074444. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Establishment of new manufacturing sites in high-technology industries requires considerable investments. These investments need to be safeguarded against the impacts of natural hazards. The March 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami highlighted the tremendous impacts of cascading hazards and emphasised the importance of hazard and risk assessment in the early stages of site selection. A screening study of coastal inundation due to multiple hazards was performed for a potential manufacturing plant at the Batu Kawan Industrial Park in Penang state, Malaysia. The analysis accounted for river floods, rainfall and flash floods, cyclones, tides, storm surges, sea-level rise, and tsunamis. Natural hazards not related to inundation, such as earthquakes and volcanoes, were also briefly evaluated. Where relevant data were available, the hazards were assessed quantitatively. Otherwise, they were assessed qualitatively. The effects of climate changes were discussed for temperature and rainfall and for sea-level rise. The proposed development site elevation of 2.60 m LSD (Land Survey Data Level; 30 cm above mean sea level) will probably be reached by both the 100-year flood and the 100-year combined tide and storm surge. With a well-engineered drainage system the flooding risk is low, but in this low-lying area coincidence with a storm surge or high tide will aggravate the flooding situation. Sea-level rise over the next 100 years for the region is assumed to be less than 0.55 m. The relative levels for the other hazards were found to be lower. There is obviously significant uncertainty associated with the estimated hazard at the return periods considered for design. A further comparison of the various hazard levels is not meaningful without considering also the consequences (i.e. the risk).

• Jaedicke, Christian; Syre, Egil & Sverdrup-Thygeson, Kjetil (2014). GIS-aided avalanche warning in Norway. Computers & Geosciences. ISSN 0098-3004. 66, p. 31–39. doi: 10.1016/j.cageo.2014.01.004.
• Jaedicke, Christian; Eckhaut, M., Van Den; Nadim, Farrokh ; Hérvas, Javier; Kalsnes, Bjørn & Vangelsten, Bjørn Vidar [Show all 13 contributors for this article] (2014). Identification of landslide hazard and risk 'hotspots' in Europe. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment. ISSN 1435-9529. 73(2), p. 325–339. doi: 10.1007/s10064-013-0541-0.
• Eira, Inger Marie Gaup; Jaedicke, Christian; Magga , Ole Henrik; Maynard, Nancy G; Vikhamar Schuler, Dagrun & Mathiesen , Svein Dish (2013). Traditional Sámi snow terminology and physical snow classification-Two ways of knowing. Cold Regions Science and Technology. ISSN 0165-232X. 85, p. 117–130. doi: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2012.09.004. Show summary

  Humans describe the natural environment on the basis of their local experience and their interactions with nature in terms of its relevance to their daily lives. These descriptions are incorporated into local languages and form a specialized terminology that is unique and specifically applicable to needs and practices. In Guovdageaidnu (Kautokeino), Northern Norway, snow covers the ground more than seven months of the year in winter. Therefore, snow defines most of the conditions which must be met to support Sámi reindeer pastoralism. Snow is a prerequisite for mobility, tracking, visibility and availability of pasture plants. The terms used to describe the snow on the ground include characteristics needed to communicate snow properties relevant to reindeer herding. In this paper, traditional Sámi snow terms and their definitions are compared with the scientific and physical classification of snow on the ground. The study of traditional Sámi snow terms was carried out through historical documentation and interviews with reindeer herders. The results showed that many traditional Sámi terms describe snow conditions as they are defined by the international standard; whereas, other traditional terms describe the physical processes leading up to certain snow conditions. A group of snow terms have as their main purpose the clear communication of the snow conditions for reindeer herding to serve as a tool for internal communication within the herding community. A major finding was the herders' snow knowledge which was more holistic and integrated into the ecology of the herd and pastures than the international standard snow terms. The richness and relevance to reindeer herders of Sámi traditional snow terms show a distinctly different view of snow compared to the purely physically-based international classifications. This paper gives an overview of the most important traditional terms, their definitions, and the physical processes associated with those terms. Application of the terms was compared to local weather conditions and the physical processes that created the different snow conditions. The analysis underscores the richness and accuracy of Sámi snow terminology. In addition, this study illustrates the importance of using traditional Sámi terminology when developing adaptation strategies to future climate change for Sámi reindeer herding emphasizing the importance of two ways of knowing.

• Nadim, Farrokh ; Jaedicke, Christian; Smebye, Helge & Kalsnes, Bjørn (2013). Assessment of Global Landslide Hazard Hotspots. In Sassa, Kyoji; Rouhban, B.; Briceño, Salvano & McSaveney, Mauri (Ed.), Landslides: Global Risk Preparedness. Springer. ISSN 978-3-642-22086-9. p. 59–71. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-22087-6_4.
• Eckhaut, M., Van Den; Hérvas, J.; Jaedicke, Christian; Malet, J.P.; Montanarella, L. & Nadim, Farrokh (2012). Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data. Landslides. Journal of the International Consortium on Landslides. ISSN 1612-510X. 9(3), p. 357–369. doi: 10.1007/s10346-011-0299-z.

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• Jaedicke, Christian; Studeregger, Arnold; Monti, Fabiano; Dellavedova, Paola; Stoffel, Lukas & Azzarello, Sergio [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2018). Local avalanche warning in Europe. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Avalanche exposed settlements, communication lines, ski resort operations, construction sites, tourism and professional guiding are only few examples of activities in the mountains where an active risk management requires local avalanche warnings. While regional avalanche warning is somehow standardized by the rules and standards of the European Avalanche Warning Services (EAWS), local avalanche warning services use a great variety of methods and tools both in the avalanche hazard assessment and in the communication of the results. To gain an overview of the different practices in Europe, the EAWS established a working group on local avalanche warning. The aim of the working group is to establish a general definition of local and regional avalanche warning and to outline the state of the art in Europe. A questionnaire in six languages was circulated in Europe to target local avalanche services collecting more than 200 answers. The analysis of the survey shows a large variety between local avalanche services, very different set-ups and applied methods for assessing and communicating the local avalanche danger. Based on the results of the questionnaire, a first definition of local versus regional avalanche warning assessment is presented.

• Hestnes, Erik & Jaedicke, Christian (2018). Global warning reduces the consequences of snow-related hazards. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Most recent publications dealing with consequences related to avalanches and slushflows state that their impact on mankind will increase. That is a highly debatable statement. Milder weather, shorter winters, less snow and rise of snowline will mainly shift their potential problem away from populated areas and infrastructure. It is unlikely that expansion of settlement and/or human activity into these areas will outweigh the hazard reduction, mainly because other types of rapid mass movements will increase in those areas and in general. Surely are part of the Arctic and parts of cold continental and mountainous regions, subject to more snow and rain in winter due to the climatic change, and consequently to larger and more frequent avalanches and slushflows. It is, however, unlikely that the consequences to future activity in remote areas will exceed the reduction in consequences in more densely populated areas. Global warming reduces the impact by snow-related hazards on mankind, but the general hazard potential worldwide will most likely increase.

• Benestad, Rasmus; Ivanov, Vladimir; Arbo, Peter; Peters, Glen Philip; Ananicheva, Maria & Dobler, Andreas [Show all 30 contributors for this article] (2017). Physical and socio-economic environment , AMAP 2017 Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area . Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). ISSN 9788279711025. p. 59–108.
• Malnes, Eirik; Eckerstorfer, Markus; Larsen, yngvar; Frauenfelder, Regula; Jónsson, Árni & Jaedicke, Christian [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2013). Remote sensing of avalanches in northern Norway using Synthetic Aperture Radar.
• Jaedicke, Christian; Kalsnes, Bjørn & Solheim, Anders (2022). Sørpeskred. Egenskaper, historikk og sikringsløsninger. SINTEF akademisk forlag. ISSN 978-82-536-1772-5. Show summary

  Sørpeskred er en skredtype som gjør stor skade på infrastruktur og bebyggelse, men som er forsket på og dokumentert i mye mindre omfang enn for eksempel snøskred og flomskred. Sørpeskred oppstår når snødekket mettes med vann og mobiliseres som en flytende masse nedover skredløpet. Det pågår diskusjoner om varmere vær med flere innslag av intensivt regn på snødekket om vinteren kan gi opphav til flere sørpeskred. Det er derfor viktig å kunne identifisere mulige sørpeskredområder og vurdere teknikker og konsepter for sikring mot sørpeskred. Rapporten gir en kort innføring i sørpeskred som naturfare, og hvilke prosesser som fører til sørpeskred. På bakgrunn av denne informasjonen blir ulike sikringsløsninger presentert og diskutert.

• Bilt, Willem van der; Bakke, Jostein; Smedsrud, Lars H.; Sund, Monica; Schuler, Thomas & Westermann, Sebastian [Show all 47 contributors for this article] (2019). Climate in Svalbard 2100 . Norsk klimaservicesenter. ISSN 2387-3027. Full text in Research Archive
• Førland, Eirik J.; Alfnes, Eli; Amundsen, Helene; Asval, Randi Pytte; Benestad, Rasmus & Debernard, Jens [Show all 19 contributors for this article] (2007). Climate change and natural disasters in Norway. An assessment of possible future changes. met.no report 6/2007.

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