The PhD defence and trial lecture will be held in Auditorium 1 in The Geology Building. In some cases, it will be possible to attend the trial lecture and dissertation digitally, in that case a link to Zoom will be posted.
Trial lecture
Tuesday 13 February, 10:15-11:00, Aud 1, The Geology Building:
From droughts to floods - modelling hydrological extremes in a changing climate
Conferral summary (in Norwegian)
Faren for flom er reel flere steder i Norge. For å redusere skader og kostnader forårsaket av flom, kan man forebygge, for eksempel ved å bygge flomvern, bygge infrastruktur som tåler flom, eller unngå å bygge i flomutsatte områder. Slike tiltak krever beregning av dimensjonerende verdier for flomhendelser slik som størrelsen på en 100 års-flom. Der kapasitet til å «håndtere» flomvolum er viktig, som ved flomsoneforvaltning og reservoarutforming, kreves ofte dimensjonerende verdier for flomvolum av ulik varighet. I avhandlingen utforskes og utvikles statistiske metoder for å beregne flomverdier på ulike steder, både med og uten fysiske målinger.
Main research findings
Popular scientific article about Barna’s dissertation:
Flood frequency analysis at multiple durations
Part of the way society manages exposure to floods is through estimation of flood design values. Flood design values give estimates relating flood magnitude to flood frequency and are essential to make adaptive decisions in hydrologic applications such as infrastructure design, flood protection, land use planning, and water resource management.
For flood retention-specific applications, such as floodplain management and reservoir design, the focus on retention capacity requires assessing the total flow volume over different spans of time, for example one hour vs one day, regardless of whether that volume of water comes from a single event or multiple consecutive events. Thus design values for these applications are often needed for multiple durations, where “duration” refers to a time span of interest.
The thesis explores statistical methods for this scenario, extending an existing flood-duration-frequency model for more realistic modelling of design values' relationships at various durations in specific locations. A Bayesian framework is proposed for local models.
The thesis also evaluates the suitability of regression-based regional flood frequency analysis models for estimating design values at multiple durations in out-of-sample locations. Finally, some recommendations are given for regional model structure when the goal is design value estimation at various durations.
Photo and other information:
Press photo: Danielle Barna, portrait; 500px. Photo: Private
Other photo material: Photo with description and credit as specified in the article above, size 2000px.
