Results from the project

The research done by participants in the project have resulted in several presentations, lectures and publications as listed below: 

Presentations

1. Conferences

The EGU General Assembly EGU 2019, 7-12 April, Vienna, Austria.

  1. Zhou, Y.L., Xu, C-Y, et al. 2019. Hybrid artificial neural network, copula and hydrologic uncertainty processor for probabilistic flood forecasting. Vol. 21, EGU 2019-4974-1, 2019.
  2. Ngongondo, C., Zhou, Y.L., Xu, C-Y, 2019. Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme Lake Malawi levels. Vol. 21, EGU 2019-5420, 2019.
  3. Li, H., Xu, C-Y, Borsányi, P., Sælthun, N.R., Braskerud, B.C., Volden, E.P., 2019. Identification of floodways by four approaches, Vol. 21, EGU 2019-7719, 2019.)

The EGU General Assembly 2020, 4-8 May 2020.

Research results of the project were presented in 5 oral and poster presentations at the virtual live sessions of The EGU General Assembly 2020. Details are reported at the Publication Information page of the annual report. 

The EGU General Assembly 2021, 19-30 April 2021.

Zhou, Yanlai, Xu, Chong-Yu, Ngongondo, Cosmo, Li, Lu (2021). Detection, attribution and frequency analysis of non-stationary flood peaks in 32 big rivers worldwide. European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2021, Gather Online, 19–30 April 2021. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10635.

Keynote Presentations: at The International Symposium of Hydrological Sciences and High-efficiency Water Resources Utilization under the Changing Environment (ISHW-2019), Wuhan, China, October 24-26, 2019

  1. The Project scientist Prof Sharad Jain from National Institute of Hydrology, India, gave a keynote talk on: Water resources planning and flood control in India.
  2. Project scientist Prof Nils Roar Sælthun from UiO, gave a keynote talk on: Sponge city development and flood drainage in Norway.
  3. Project advisor Dr Stein Beldring from NVE, Norway, gave a keynote talk on: Water resources management and environmental issues in Norway.
  4. Chong-Yu Xu, project manager chaired the panel session of the international symposium.
  5. The project participants Dr Yanlai Zhou (UiO), Dr Hong Li (UiO), Dr. Kolbjørn Engeland (NVE), Mr Xu Yang (Three Gorges Cooperation), Prof Chong-Yu Xu (UiO), Prof Cosmo Ngongondo (University of Malawi), Dr Lu Li

2. Lectures and Disseminations 

Year 2020.10 – 2021.9

  1. Barna, D., Engeland, K., Thorarinsdottir, T., Xu, C-Y (2021). A Bayesian approach to flood-duration-frequency analysis. Presentation at the 6th Conference Modelling Hydrology, Climate and Land Surface Processes, Lillehammer 14.–16. September 2021. 

  2. Jain Sharad K. (2020). 25/06/20 "Development in Methodology and Tools for Impact Analysis and Risk Assessment", Webinar presentation organized by NEERI, Nagpur, 25/09/2020

  3. Jain, Sharad K. (2021). “Flood Disaster Risk Management”, training course "Flood Risk Management", Webinar presentation organized by Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology (SVNIT), Surat. 03/03/2021

  4. Jain, Sharad K. (2020). “Flood management in India”. Webinar inaugurated by Director, IIT Roorkee and seven experts from India and abroad delivered talks, with more than 500 of delegates.

  5. Jain, Sharad K. (2021) “Impacts of Climate Change on Water Availability and Adaptation” in “Water conclave – for a better future”, Webinar presentation organized by Australia India Water Centre and JSS Science and Technology University, Mysuru. 16/03/2021

  6. Xu, Chong-Yu (2021). Hydrological extremes analysis and modeling in a changing world. Webinar lecture organized by Utrecht University, 28/01/2021

  7. Xu, Chong-Yu (2021). Impact of climate change on floods and water resources. Webinar lecture organized by Yangtze River Academy Of Sciences, 07/06/2021

  8. Xu, Chong-Yu (2021). Water resources utilization and design of nonstationary flood extremes under changing environment. Invited lecture at a series of six seminars organized by Wuhan University, 05-09 July 2021.

  9. Zhou, Yanlai, Xu, Chong-Yu (2021). Non-stationary flood frequency analysis: Definition, Necessity, Methods and Challenges. Invited talk at Kick-off of NFR ClimDesign Project, Oslo, Norway, 23-24 October, 2020. 

Year 2019

  1. Xu, C-Y: Water Resources Management in a Changing world – Moving from conflict to cooperation, Keynote speech at The 8th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research June 14th to 18th, 2019, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
  2. Xu, C-Y: Water resources management in a changing world. – Invited lecture at 2019 International Leadership Training Program for Young Professionals in Water Resources Management, 11-17 August, 2019, Vientiane, Laos.

Year 2018

  1. Xu, C-Y: Climate change and flood risk management. Keynote speech at International Conference on Flood Catastrophes in a Changing Environment. Nanjing, 15-18 November, 2018.
  2. Xu, C-Y: Water cycle and hydrological modelling: progress and challenges. at UNESCO-IHP Training course, 30/7-5/8-2018, Hohai University.

Reports in the funding scheme

2019

Xu, C-Y, Yanlai Zhou. Progress report 274310 – Advancing frequency analysis of nonstationary hydrological extremes for reducing flood risk in a changing climate. Reporting deadline: 20191001. Received: 20191125. Report to The Research Council of Norway.

Scientific articles

Year 2020.10 – 2021.9

  1. Huo, R., Li, L., Chen, H., Xu, C-Y, Chen, J., Guo, S.L., 2021. Extreme precipitation changes in Europe from the last millennium to the end of the 21st century. Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.2166/nh.2020.254. (jclimate-1.pdf)
  2. Jiang, C., Xiong, L.H., Xu, C-Y, Yan, L., 2021. A river network-based hierarchical model for deriving flood frequency distributions and its application to the Upper Yangtze basin. Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029374. (WRR-12.pdf)
  3. Lan, T., Zhang, H.B., Xu, C-Y, Singh, V.P., Lin, K.R., 2020. Detection and attribution of abrupt shift in minor periods in human-impacted streamflow. Journal of Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124637. (jhydrol-66.pdf)
  4. Li, R.J., ..., Xu, C-Y, 2020. An Integrated Modelling Approach for Flood Simulation in the Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin, China. Water Resources Management, 34, pages3967–3984, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02614-4. (WARM-21.pdf)
  5. Ma, Q.M., Xiong, L.H., Xu, C-Y, Li, R.R., Ji, C.M., Zhang,K.K., 2021. Flood Wave Superposition Analysis Using Quantitative Matching Patterns of Peak Magnitude and Timing in Response to Climate Change. Water Resources Management 35, 1479-1497. (WARM-22.pdf)
  6. Ngongondo, C., Zhou, Y., & Xu, C.-Y. (2020). Multivariate framework for the assessment of key forcing to Lake Malawi level variations in non-stationary frequency analysis. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 192(9), 593–593. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08519-4
  7. Qi, W.Y., Chen, J., Li, L., Xu, C-Y, et al., 2021. Impact of the number of donor catchments and the efficiency threshold on regionalization performance of hydrological models . Journal of Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126680. (JOH-80.pdf)
  8. Qi, W.Y., Chen, J., Xu, C-Y, Wan, Y.J., 2021. Finding the Optimal Multimodel Averaging Method for Global Hydrological Simulations . Remote Sessing, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13132574. (Remote_sens-9.pdf)
  9. Shi, X.Y., Chen, J., Gu,L., Xu, C-Y, Chen, H., Zhang, L.P., 2021. Impacts and socioeconomic exposures of global extreme precipitation events in 1.5 and 2.0°C warmer climates . Science of the Total Environment, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142665. (Scitotenv-9.pdf)
  10. Wang, H.M., Chen, J., Xu, C-Y, Zhang, J.K., Chen, H., 2020. A framework to quantify the uncertainty contribution of GCMs over multiple sources in hydrological impacts of climate change. Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001602. (Earth's Future-1.pdf)
  11. Wang, W.G., Chen, L., Xu, C-Y, 2021. Editorial: Hydrological Modeling in Water Cycle Processes . Water 13(14), 1882; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13141882. (WAT-18.pdf)
  12. Xu, C-Y, 2021. Issues influencing accuracy of hydrological modeling in a changing environment. Water Science and Engineering, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2021.06.005. (WSE-2.pdf)
  13. Yan, L., Xiong, L.H., Jiang, C., Zhang, M.J., Wang, D., Xu, C-Y, 2021. Updating intensity–duration–frequency curves for urban infrastructure design under a changing environment. WIREs Water, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1519. (Wires-Wat-1.pdf)
  14. Yan, L., Xiong, L.H., Ruan, G.S., Xu, C-Y, Zhang, M.J., 2021. Design flood estimation with varying record lengths in Norway under stationarity and nonstationarity scenarios. Hydrology Research, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2021.026. (HR-38.pdf)
  15. Yang H., Xiong, L.H., Xiong, B., Zhang, Q., Xu, C-Y, 2020. Separating runoff change by the improved Budyko complementary relationship considering both effects of climate and human activities on basin characteristics. Journal of Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125330. (JOH-73.pdf)
  16. Zhou, Y. (2020). Exploring multidecadal changes in climate and reservoir storage for assessing nonstationarity in flood peaks and risks worldwide by an integrated frequency analysis approach. Water Research, 185, 116265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116265
  17. Zhou, Y., Xu, C.-Y., Ngongondo, C., & Li, L. (2021). Detection, attribution and frequency analysis of non-stationary flood peaks in 32 big rivers worldwide. EGU21 Abstract. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10635

Year 2019.10 – 2020.9

  1. Bian, G.D., ..., Xu C-Y, 2020. Detection and attribution of flood responses to precipitation change and urbanization: a case study in Qinhuai River Basin, Southeast China. Hydrology Research, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2020.063. (HR-34.pdf)
  2. Hu, C., Xia, J., She, D.X., Xu, C-Y, et al., 2019. A modified regional L-moment method for regional extreme precipitation frequency analysis in the Songliao River Basin of China. Atmospheric Research 230 (2019) 104629. (Atmos-Res-2.pdf)
  3. Lan, T., Lin, K.R., Xu, C-Y, Tan, X.Z., Chen, X.H., 2020. Dynamics of hydrological model parameters: mechanisms, problems and solutions. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1347–1366. (HESS-15.pdf)
  4. Li, R.J., ..., Xu, C-Y, 2020. An Integrated Modelling Approach for Flood Simulation in the Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin, China. Water Resources Management, 34, pages3967–3984, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02614-4. (WARM-21.pdf)
  5. Li, W., Chen, J., Li, L., Chen, H., Liu, B.Y., Xu, C-Y, Li, X.Q., 2019. Evaluation and Bias Correction of S2S Precipitation for Hydrological Extremes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0042.1. (JHM-63.pdf) (Among the most read papers in Journal of Hydrometerology )
  6. Li, X.Q., Chen, J., Xu, C-Y, Li, L., Chen, H., 2019. Performance of Post-Processed Methods in Hydrological Predictions Evaluated by Deterministic and Probabilistic Criteria. Water Resources Management (2019) 33:3289–3302. (WARM-18.pdf)
  7. Lin, K.R., Chen, H.Y., Xu, C-Y, et al., 2020. Assessment of flash flood risk based on improved analytic hierarchy process method and integrated maximum likelihood clustering algorithm. Journal of Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124696. (jhydrol-67.pdf)
  8. Ngongondo, C., Zhou, Y.L., Xu, C-Y, 2020. Multivariate framework for the assessment of key forcing to Lake Malawi levels variations in non-stationary frequency analysis. Environmental Monitoring & Assessment, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08519-4. (Envi-Mon-Ass-1.pdf)
  9. Reynolds, J.E., Halldin, S., Seibert, J., Xu C-Y, Grabs, T., 2020. Flood prediction using parameters calibrated on limited discharge data and uncertain rainfall scenarios. Hydrological Sciences Journal, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1747619. (hsj-14.pdf)
  10. Wang, H.M., Chen, J., Xu, C-Y, Chen, H., Guo, S.L., Xie, P., 2019. Does the weighting of climate simulations result in a better quantification of hydrological impacts? Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4033–4050. (HESS-14.pdf)
  11. Wang, H.M., Chen, J., Xu, C-Y, Zhang, J.K., Chen, H., 2020. A framework to quantify the uncertainty contribution of GCMs over multiple sources in hydrological impacts of climate change. Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001602. (Earth's Future-1.pdf)
  12. Xiong, B., Xiong, L.H., Guo, S.L., Xu, C-Y, et. al., 2020. Nonstationary Frequency Analysis of Censored Data: A Case Study of the Floods in the Yangtze River from 1470 to 2017. Water Resources Research, doi:10.1029/2020WR027112. (WRR-11.pdf)
  13. Xiong, B., Xiong, L.H., Xia, J., Xu, C-Y, Jiang, C., Du, T., 2019. Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream flood frequency by coupling the effect of scheduling-related multivariate rainfall with an indicator of reservoir effects. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23(11):4453-4470. (HESS-13.pdf)
  14. Yan, L., Xiong, L.H., Luan, Q.H., Jiang, C., Yu, K.X., Xu, C-Y, Liu, J., 2020. On the Applicability of the Expected Waiting Time Method in Nonstationary Flood Design. Water Resources Management, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02581-w. (WARM-19.pdf)
  15. Yang, W.S., *Chen, H., *Xu, C-Y, Huo, R., Chen, J., Guo, S.L., 2020. Temporal and spatial transferabilities of hydrological models under different climates and underlying surface conditions. Journal of Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125276. (JOH-72.pdf)
  16. Yang, X., Magnusson, J., *Xu C-Y, 2019. Transferability of regionalization methods under changing climate. Journal of Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.030. (JOH-57.pdf)
  17. Zhou, Y.L., *Guo, S.L., *Xu, C-Y, *Chang, Yin, J.B., 2020. Improving the Reliability of Probabilistic Multi-Step-Ahead Flood Forecasting by Fusing Unscented Kalman Filter with Recurrent Neural Network. Water 2020, 12, 578; doi:10.3390/w12020578 Among Editor's Choice Articles (Water-13.pdf)

Year 2018-2019

  1. Xiong, F., Guo, S.L., Liu, P., Xu, C-Y, Zhong, Y.X., Yin, J.B., He, S.K., 2019. A general framework of design flood estimation for cascade reservoirs in operation period. Journal of Hydrology https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124003. (JOH-62.pdf)  
  2. Zhang, X.Q., Liu, P., Xu, C-Y, Gong. Y., Cheng, L., He, S.K., 2019. Real-time reservoir flood control operation for cascade reservoirs using a two-stage flood risk analysis method. Journal of Hydrology 577, 123954. (JOH-60.pdf)
  3. Yan, L., Xiong, L.H., Ruan, G.S., Xu C-Y, Yan, P.T., Liu, P., 2019. Reducing uncertainty of design floods of two-component mixture distributions by utilizing flood timescale to classify flood types in seasonally snow covered region. Journal of Hydrology, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.056 (JOH-59.pdf) 
  4. Reynolds, J.E., Halldin, S., Seibert, J., Xu C-Y, Grabs, T., 2019. Robustness of flood-model calibration using single and multiple events. Hydrological Sciences Journal, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1609682. (hsj-13.pdf)
  5. Jiang, C., Xiong, L.H., Yan, L., Dong, J.F., Xu, C-Y, 2019. Multivariate hydrologic design methods under nonstationary conditions and application to engineering practice. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23, 1683–1704. (HESS-12.pdf)
  6. Chen, X.H., Ye, C.Q., Zhang, J.M., Xu, C-Y, Zhang, L.J., Tang, Y.H., 2019. Selection of Optimal Distribution Curve for Non-stationary Flood Series. Atmosphere, doi:10.3390/atmos10010031. (Atmosphere-1.pdf)
  7. Wang, H.M., Chen, J., Cannon, A.J., Xu, C-Y, Chen, H., 2018. Transferability of climate simulation uncertainty to hydrological climate change impacts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22, 3739-3759. (HESS-9.pdf)
  8. Wang, J., Zhang, X-H, Xu, C-Y, Wang, H., Lei, X-H, Wang, X., Li, S-Y, 2019. Development of load duration curve system in data-scarce watersheds based on a distributed hydrological model. Hydrology Research 50(3), 886-900. (HR-30.pdf)
  9. Yang, X., Magnusson, J., *Xu C-Y, 2018. Transferability of regionalization methods under changing climate. Journal of Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.030. (JOH-57.pdf)
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