Statistical modelling of floods

Statistical modelling of floods is among others used for estimating design floods (e.g. the 200-year flood) required for dam safety, area planning and infrastructure design. Robust and reliable models are needed. Statistical modelling faces several challenges including data quality, sample size, and prediction in ungauged locations.

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) is responsible for the national recommendation for design flood estimation and providing data and tools for such estimates (e.g. nevina.nve.no). Results from master projects can form the bases for improving guidelines or provide recommendations for best practices.

Example projects:

  • Non-stationarity
  • Widespread floods
  • Use of meta-statistical extreme value distribution.
  • Identification of flood divides (i.e. marked increments in the magnitude of rare floods)  in flood data.
  • Flood frequency analysis using flood data classified according to flood-generating processes.
  • What is the effect of using ‘calendar day’ maxima instead of ’24 hour maxima in flood frequency analysis
  • Connecting temporal scaling properties of floods to flood-generating processes
  • Using historical flood information.
  • Estimation of design hydrograph.
  • Precipitation-runoff approaches for design flood estimation.
Image may contain: Water, Sky, Tire, Wheel, Mountain.
Fig. 1 Flood in Utvik 24 July 2017. Photo: Øystein Nøtsund, NVE. Click here for a bigger version.

 

Published Oct. 6, 2022 10:34 AM - Last modified Aug. 9, 2023 12:22 PM

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