Simultaneous processes governing mobilization, transport and fate of nutrients in the terrestrial and aquatic environment (WP2) is integrated in conceptually based MyLake model. This models will be used to test hypothesis and to predict responses to expected changes in pressures, as well as in the Bayesian network methodology (WP4).
i) The SWAT mathematic hydrological model is being parameterized for western Vansjø and will be used to test hypotheses of nutrient mobilization and hydrological runoff formation in sloped areas and how it matches observed episodic hydrological and chemical data from field studies (WP2). Response to future environmental change will be investigated by using climatologically scenarios (based on downscaling).
ii) MyLake model will be adapted to western Vansjø and integrated with the output of the KIWA model to simulate effects of changing pressures (including climate scenarios) on the past and future eutrophication history on the lake system.
iii) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques will be used to estimate model parameters and assess uncertainties in the model predictions. NIVA’s Strategic Institute Program (SIP) (funded by RCN) "Integrated environmental modelling for river basin management: Models, uncertainties and good modelling practise" will be connected to this project for 2009. Several models are examined with Morsa/Vansjø as the most important case. Further modelling work in 2010-11 will be based on the SIP experiences.