Michael Scheuerer: Decadal inflow projections for catchments in Brazil

Our project partner Statkraft owns and operates several hydropower plants in Brazil and requires information about the future potential for hydropower production in this region. To provide inflow projections for the next several decades, we use climate model output in combination with a regression model that links meteorological variables such as precipitation and temperature to inflow over various catchments in the region. The relatively short time period for which observation data are available raises concerns about overfitting. We therefore explore an alternative model fitting approach that retains the original, easily interpretable regression model but estimates the regression coefficients within an artificial neural network (ANN) framework which permits spatial and temporal regularization and thus prevents overfitting. We show some examples of the inflow projections obtained with that methodology and discuss some caveats and limitations.