Invited speaker: Trude Storelvmo

By Trude Storelvmo (UiO), Jenny Bjordal (UiO), Tony Smith (Yale U.)
 
In this presentation, we will share the preliminary outcome of an ongoing experiment at the University of Oslo, in which we are using a state-of-the-art global climate model (NorESM2) combined with a disaggregated Integrated Assessment Model (DIAM)  to explore the trade-offs that decision-makers are faced with when trying to limit global warming to tolerable levels (~1.5°C) while simultaneously optimizing the economic development of their respective country/region. In this ongoing pilot study, 25 climate researchers are divided into 5 groups that each represent the interest of an assigned country/region (USA, Russia, China, India and the EU), and each group is in the game asked to make carbon tax decisions with both global temperature targets and regional economic productivity in mind. Carbon tax decisions are made for 20-year intervals at the time, and the coupled NorESM2/DIAM model is then integrated forward in time in 20-year increments according to the groups’ tax decisions. The game culminates when the simulation reaches year 2100, at which time we take stock of the resulting global climate and economic development, and the winners and losers of the climate casino will emerge. This study is a demonstration of the research and teaching potential that lies in bringing climate and economic expertise and modeling tools together.