With more weather-dependent renewable electricity supply and electrification of end-use, it is an increased need for flexible solutions to adapt to variability and uncertainty of supply and demand. Flexible solutions include flexible energy supply, energy trade, storage solutions and end-use flexibility, such as demand response and EV charging. Long-term energy system models are used to quantify the development needs of the energy system to meet future climate targets as well as ensuring that future demands are met. A challenge is, however, that model results are sensitive to the methodology used, and this includes the future value and need for flexible solutions.
This presentation gives an overview, with examples, of methodologies that are used to capture a more realistic representation of short-term uncertainty, and thereby also value flexibility, in long-term planning of the energy system. The strengths and challenges between using the different methodologies are discussed. Although considering uncertainty in the energy system planning increases the complexity, it might be necessary to provide reliable insights for a resilient low-carbon transformation of the energy system.